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午后美联储突传利好！亚太股市集体反攻_我的网站

一 |     　　市场终于有了一些起色！
　　午后，日韩股市集体翻红。    

    Conceptual diagram of AI Photo: VCG
In a report released on Tuesday, the World Bank made an optimistic assessment that artificial intelligence (AI) could allow developing countries to do in a decade what might otherwise take a century. The report found that AI will throw developing economies a lifeline, and that the technology's greatest promise for developing countries lies not in replacing workers, but in amplifying what they can do.
While advanced economies are still debating whether AI will wipe out white-collar jobs, this report serves as a critical reminder that AI is not merely a force that replaces human labor. More importantly, it acts as an amplifier that unlocks growth potential.
For years, many assumed that AI penetration would primarily erode low- and mid-skilled jobs and widen development gaps among economies. Yet for most developing countries still undergoing digital transformation, AI represents far more than a choice between automation and human labor. It provides a cost-effective shortcut to remedy decades of digital infrastructure shortcomings. 
Many digital capabilities that once required massive capital investment, systematic infrastructure development and professional talent training can now be realized through open-weight AI tools. This dramatic reduction in technological barriers offers developing countries a rare chance to leapfrog stages of technological iteration and catch up with global development trends.
In China, this "amplification effect" is unfolding in various ways. Over the past few years, new professions built around human-AI collaboration have kept emerging, while the skill sets required for traditional jobs are evolving at a rapid pace. 
What matters even more is that China's unique AI development path carries special reference value for other developing countries. China has already integrated AI on a massive scale into core real-life scenarios spanning manufacturing, agriculture, healthcare and education, while continuously driving down the cost of access. 
According to CNBC, Chinese built AI models are gaining ground, and they are gaining traction as they narrow the performance gap with leading American rivals while remaining significantly cheaper to use. This model provides the most practical, accessible entry point for developing economies stepping into the AI era, rather than forcing them to chase unattainable, high-end technical standards that are out of their financial and operational reach.
With the rise of Chinese open-source and open-weight models, AI competition between China and the US has become a hot topic in the global technology landscape. Some in the West often frame this as a technological power tussle between two major countries, measured by model parameters, financing scale and semiconductor manufacturing precision. While such indicators reflect technological advancement, one shouldn't overlook the far more fundamental purpose of technology. The ultimate value of any technology lies in its ability to address shared global challenges and deliver tangible public benefits.
Many developing regions are still in the very early stages of digital transformation. Truly meaningful, impactful AI capability is never cutting-edge technology locked away in a laboratory. It is technology that can step out of the lab, root itself in local realities, and deliver inclusive, accessible solutions that help these countries cross the threshold of digital infrastructure at minimal cost. It is about bringing open-weight, user-friendly AI tools into the hands of ordinary people and companies.
When more developing economies are able to use AI as a lever to bridge their long-standing development gaps, the global digital divide will not be further widened by this new round of technological revolution. Instead, it will be gradually narrowed for the first time in decades. From this perspective, the outcome of global AI competition will not be determined by which country first reaches the ceiling of technological sophistication. The real decisive factor is which country can extend technological benefits to the broadest population groups and leverage AI to drive inclusive global growth.
。A股市场亦显著反弹，上证指数由早盘下跌30点到午后上涨超10点，科创50、创业板指等近期调整幅度较大的指数午后亦大举反攻。美股纳指期货午后反弹幅度超0.4%。　　分析人士认为，全球市场午后的反攻可能与市场对美联储主席沃什的讲话预期有关。午后有消息称，沃什可能会在杰克逊霍尔会议讲话中就美联储如何应对通胀问题提供重要更新，并为市场提供确定性。这种确定性或可缓解近期股债的压力。　　美联储突传利好　　早盘一度杀跌4.3%的韩国KOSPI指数午后转涨，早盘跌1.3%的日经指数午后翻红并拉升超0.4%。A股三大指数午后集体翻红，科创50指数涨幅一度扩大至1%，军工装备、小家电、CRO概念涨幅居前，全市场超4300家个股上涨。

二 | 　　美联储的利好消息可能是市场反弹的重要驱动。Algebris全球信贷投资组合经理Gabriele Foa表示，预计美联储主席沃什将在周五的杰克逊霍尔会议讲话中就美联储如何应对通胀问题提供重要更新，尤其是在7月新闻发布会上释放出混合信号之后。　　他表示，到目前为止，美联储一直避免提供明确的前瞻性指引，导致其政策反应函数存在异常大的不确定性。这种不确定性正在推动美债收益率曲线趋陡，长端收益率成为主要释放压力的渠道。这在一定程度上与贝森特试图通过降低长期收益率实现的目标相悖，也可能表明美联储与财政部之间的协调程度低于部分市场参与者此前预期。　　中金公司发布最新研报称，此前沃什“让市场替美联储加息”表态未能缓解通胀担忧，叠加财政部干预失效，政策公信力受损，美债收益率持续走高。预计沃什这次会重申通胀风险、保留加息选项以重建信誉，但他也将继续坚持减少央行干预、降低沟通频率等长期主张。沃什并未放弃“缩表+降息”的政策理念，但其赖以成立的前提与当下的现实情况存在错位，需要加以协调与更清晰的表达。若沃什能够展现足够的政策灵活性，市场对美债的担忧有望部分缓解，美元受到支撑；反之则信任持续流失，长端美债收益率继续上行，美元承压。　　日本加息预期渐浓　　市场变数依然存在。今天发布的数据显示，日本央行一项衡量潜在通胀的指标仍高于2%的目标水平，支持市场普遍预期日本央行将在9月加息。

三 | 　　日本央行周二表示，剔除新鲜食品以及多项政府措施影响后的消费者价格指标7月同比上涨2.3%。相比之下，日本政府上周公布的核心通胀指标（仅剔除新鲜食品）同比上涨1.8%。

四 | 这些数据属于日本央行行长植田和男今年3月推出的新一批价格指标，旨在更细致地观察潜在通胀趋势。该数据进一步显示，潜在通胀压力仍然强劲。受中东冲突导致能源价格上涨影响，企业面临成本上升压力，并正在将更高的投入成本转嫁给消费者。这一结果也增强了日本央行的观点，即需要对通胀上行风险保持更高警惕。

五 | 市场目前定价显示，日本央行9月加息的概率约为80%。　　不过，也并非每次日本央行加息都会给资本市场带来冲击。只有当日本央行加息叠加外部风险事件时，才会对资本市场造成了一定冲击。据中金公司数据，2024年7月加息，恰逢美国非农数据走弱触发“萨姆法则”，引发市场对于美国经济衰退的担忧，形成套息交易逆转，日元快速升值3.9%，日经225指数大幅下跌19.6%，标普500指数也下跌6.1%。2025年1月日本央行加息后不久，DeepSeek问世引发美国科技股估值调整，月内日元升值4.2%，日经225指数下跌4.2%。而2024年3月、2025年12月和2026年6月的加息并无明显外部事件扰动，日经指数有涨有跌。

六 | 　　中金认为，日本央行加息对股票市场的影响很大程度上取决于投资者情绪。回顾过去几轮日本央行加息后的市场表现可以发现，相较于加息本身，市场情绪和外部环境才是决定资产价格走势的核心因素。　　另外，目前套息交易规模有限，日美联合干预后日元净空头大幅减少。截至2026年8月11日，对冲基金持有的日元净空头头寸规模约为5.9万张，较7月底12万张的历史高位显著回落。

七 | （文章来源：券商中国）。

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